By Rafiu Ajakaye
LAGOS
As Nigerians gear up to go to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president, analysts say that money – along with ethnic and religious sentiments – will determine the vote's outcome.
"At the end of the day, how people vote will be determined by what fears they have," Jiddah Abdullah, a political analyst, told The Anadolu Agency.
"A southerner in the north will think twice about voting for [Muhammadu] Buhari for fear of what this could mean to him in the region, based on his experience living there," he said.
Although 14 candidates will vie for the presidency in Saturday's vote, the poll is largely seen as a race between Buhari and incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
Buhari, a northerner, is a former military ruler running on the ticket of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party.
The APC represents an amalgam of political interests that have come together in a bid to wrest power from Jonathan's People's Democratic Party (PDP), which has ruled the country since 1999.
"Many southerners living in the north fear that northerners are only waiting to assume power before baring their fangs," Abdullah said.
"The fact that many southerners are travelling home is a wrong signal. It shows they don't feel secure in the north by whatever outcome of the poll," he added.
Analysts expect Buhari to win by a landslide in most parts of the north, especially the northwest, and some parts of the south, particularly the southwest, where his APC is strongest.
He is expected to share the northeast with Jonathan, although the Boko Haram-infested Borno and Yobe states are Buhari's traditional strongholds – largely due to the Islamic factor.
Meanwhile, Jonathan, a Christian, is expected to share the religiously mixed Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe towns with Buhari because of deep-seated distrust between the two religious communities.
But Jonathan is also expected to win at least 25 percent of the vote in most parts of the northwest, thanks to some of the ministers and governors in his ruling PDP, who have considerable power to influence votes using money, personal appeals and other means.
Nigeria has a total of 36 states divided into six geopolitical zones. The zones are based largely on the country's ethnic diversities.
-Money-
But analysts warn that voting patterns in Saturday's polls may not necessarily be dictated by this political map.
"People are poor. You can expect that money, tribal allegiance, threats of violence and religion will all play huge roles [in the election]," Ishaya Balak, a political analyst, told AA.
"Add all this to powers of incumbency. The APC will seek to make a maximum impact in the states it governs, deploying massive resources and goodwill. The same applies to the [ruling] PDP," he said.
"In some places," he added, "the deeper your pockets, the more votes you are going to get."
Though opinion polls currently favor the opposition, some analysts say things may go differently.
"If we had voted on Feb. 14 [as originally scheduled], Buhari would have won, hands down. But I'm afraid Jonathan has turned the tide over the last six weeks," Taieu Adebayo, an Abuja-based lawyer and public commentator, told AA.
"A lot of money has been spent," he said. "The PDP has succeeded in polarizing the southwest, which was before now locked down for the APC."
"Let nobody make the mistake of thinking that the APC will win by a landslide in the region, where many of the top opinion molders now favor Jonathan," he added.
The analyst went on: "When you consider that the APC probably based its calculations on having the two most populous regions – the northwest and southwest – locked down, then this development means the tide has probably turned."
According to Adebayo, the recent exodus of southerners from the north may also harm Buhari.
"[This is because] most of these southerners registered to vote in the north," he explained. "And because you can't vote outside where you registered, that means thousands of vote wasted."
-Scaremongering-
Olasumbo Anike, a chartered accountant, believes most voters won't leave their homes for fear of violence.
"A gang war in Lagos and the threat of violence here and there will deter most people from voting," Anike said.
"When you consider that this is an APC stronghold, and the fact that most voters will vote based on issues of governance… you can draw your own conclusions," he said.
"Nevertheless, I still think the APC with carry the southwest and northwest, but by what margins means a lot," he asserted.
"The PDP will claim the southeast and the south because Jonathan is seen as one of them," he added. "They will pardon whatever wrongs people claim he's committed. The APC should fear for its 25 percent in that area."
President Jonathan's wife, Patience, has warned that a Buhari presidency would only lead to building prisons and putting people in jail.
Such scaremongering, which is common, is expected to sway substantial numbers of voters in certain areas, especially those not wholeheartedly committed to either party.
But Buhari has repeatedly denied that he would settle scores or run a government based on ethnicity if elected.
In the run-up to the polls, several issues of governance have come to the fore, including rampant insecurity, the stagnant economy and official corruption.
Buhari, respected for his Spartan lifestyle and history of probity in public spending, has an edge over incumbent Jonathan, whose government faces numerous allegations of corruption.
But deeper sentiments lie beneath what is said in the open, such as the aspirations of northern and southern political elites to capture the country's center.
"Far more than before, there seems to be a very strong and politically powerful alliance against Jonathan's reelection, especially in the northwest and southwest," Debo Adebare, a retired army officer, told AA.
"You cannot underrate the influence of the political gladiators in whatever happens on Saturday. But who wins will depend on who can out-muscle the other," Adebare said.
"I see the APC trying to deny Jonathan the required 25 percent in their strongholds in the southwest and northwest, while the PDP will also try to ensure Buhari falls short of the requirement in their own areas, too, such as the oil-rich south and the southeast," he asserted.
"In doing this, you can expect to see money, threats of violence and ethno-religious sentiments walking on all fours," he added.
He stressed that whoever won would do so by "manipulating these factors, especially in their areas of influence."
Three in every five voters that AA spoke to in the north-central region had no allegiance to any political party and planned to vote for whoever appealed to them most.
"What has the government in Kwara done for the people to warrant them to vote for the APC it belongs to? And what has the PDP done at the national level to make it my darling?" Umaru Dan'Iya, a political scientist at the University of Ilorin, told AA in the north-central Kwara State, a supposed APC stronghold.
He added: "A lot of people here will vote based on who gives them how much, along with certain local factors, such as resentment or affection for certain local politicians."
