Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking an election boost from his address to the UN General Assembly on Thursday, but appears unlikely to secure a meeting with US President Donald Trump during his New York visit, according to an Israeli analysis published Wednesday.
The speech comes just over a month before Israel’s Oct. 27 election. Netanyahu’s bloc remains well short of the 61 seats needed to form a government, according to a poll by Zman Yisrael cited in The Times of Israel analysis.
Diplomatic reporter Lazar Berman wrote that Netanyahu’s office had tried to arrange a meeting with Trump, but the US president was “apparently unwilling to make it happen.”
Trump met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani this week, while he has yet to explicitly endorse Netanyahu for another term, the analysis said.
After the analysis was published, Trump shared a story about a week-old poll that put Netanyahu’s bloc slightly ahead of its rival, though still short of a majority. He did not explicitly endorse Netanyahu, Berman noted.
A meeting would have allowed Netanyahu to revive a claim from earlier campaigns that his relationships with foreign leaders set him apart from his challengers, particularly Gadi Eisenkot, Berman wrote.
The meeting would also have given Netanyahu an opportunity to press Israel’s interests in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza directly with Trump, according to the analysis. Berman said it could have helped the prime minister repeat his past campaign argument that he was “in another league” than his rivals.
Netanyahu has other difficulties to confront at home. Berman pointed to voter anger over his failure “to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, his refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry into the disaster, his outgoing coalition’s insistent refusal to enlist Haredim, and a growing extremist strain in society.”
Although Netanyahu will speak to world leaders at the UN, Berman wrote that “his foremost audience” will be Israeli voters following the speech from home.
The prime minister must persuade them that he remains the best choice on security after what Berman called three “decidedly inconclusive campaigns” in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
On Gaza, the analysis said Netanyahu is likely to emphasize Israeli military control over more than 60% of the enclave and repeat his pledge to disarm Hamas. Berman argued that Netanyahu has yet to explain how he would accomplish that.
Berman also said Netanyahu may highlight the return of all captives from Gaza while omitting that more than 40 people taken alive were subsequently killed or died in captivity.
On Lebanon, Netanyahu is expected to stress the damage inflicted on Hezbollah and Israel’s continued military presence in the south, according to the analysis. Berman argued, however, that the plan for Lebanese forces to take over areas as Israeli troops withdraw falls short of disarming Hezbollah.
The outcome in Iran also presents a challenge for Netanyahu, Berman wrote. Although Iran has been weakened militarily and economically, the writer said there was no indication its leadership was about to “make concessions” over the Strait of Hormuz or its nuclear program.
Berman argued that Netanyahu would have to present the results of the campaigns against Iran as a “victory” despite the absence of concessions on the issues most important to Israel. He also suggested the UN speech could be an attempt to influence Trump’s approach to Tehran.
Citing Israel’s Channel 12, the analysis said Netanyahu was expected to present information at the UN about Iran’s nuclear program and efforts to rebuild its capabilities. The report said he was also expected to use visual aids of the kind he has displayed in previous UN speeches.
It also noted that Trump’s envoys held talks with Iranian officials Tuesday, as Trump spoke of reaching a deal after the US midterm elections.
Berman assessed that Trump was unlikely to resume intensive strikes on Iran before the midterms. He also argued that Tehran’s position would not change because of the US election timetable, citing its insistence on formal recognition of its control over Hormuz and its refusal to negotiate over its nuclear program.
Netanyahu’s New York schedule offered little sign of the meetings with world leaders that accompanied previous UN visits, Berman wrote. As of the analysis’s publication, he appeared unlikely to hold any high-level meetings before returning to Israel for the final weeks of the campaign.
Unlike previous visits, when Netanyahu spent days meeting other leaders around his UN address, his schedule has him arriving shortly before Thursday’s speech and leaving soon afterward. Berman linked the lack of meetings partly to damage he said Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners had done to Israel’s international standing.
Netanyahu's visit comes amid expectations of protests in New York because of Israel’s genocide in the Gaza Strip and violations in the occupied West Bank.
The visit also comes one day after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani described Netanyahu as a “war criminal” and an “architect of a horrific genocide against the Palestinians.”
Mamdani previously urged US federal authorities to enforce the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu, while acknowledging that New York City authorities lack the legal power to carry it out.
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
