WASHINGTON
Turkey was depicted as one of the four "swing countries" that could change the international order's orbit, with its growing economy, democracy and regional and global role, in a US based think-tank report.
The report, "Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and the Future of International Order", released as part of US based think-tanks a joint initiative of German Marshall Fund (GMF) and Center for a New American Security (CNAS), offer a new framework for thinking about how US engagement with those pivotal powers can bolster peace, prosperity, and freedom.
The rise of four powerful democracies – Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey – presents one of the most significant opportunities for U.S. foreign policy in the early 21st century. The report urges US leaders to pursue closer partnerships with these four countries, which was called as "global swing states".
The project examines how the United States and its European allies can partner more closely with Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey to strengthen the international order. To defend and strengthen the international order that has served so many for so long, American leaders should pursue closer partnerships with four key nations – Brazil, India,Indonesia and Turkey. Together, these "global swing states" hold the potential to renew the international order on which they, the United States, and most other countries depend.
The current international order confronts numerous challenges. Some of those challenges largely relate to the rise of China, such as outsized maritime claims and the bypassing of international financial institutions. Other challenges involve stagnating multilateral trade talks, a weakened global financial architecture, the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran and a retrenchment of democracy in some parts of the world. At the same time, a combination of fiscal and political pressures constrains the role of traditional supporters of the global order such as the United States and Europe.
The United States should therefore seize the opportunity to enlarge the international order's base of supporters to include Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey. These four nations each possess a large and growing economy, a strategic location in their region and a commitment to democratic institutions. And critically, each nation’s precise international role is now in flux.
In the American political context, swing states are those whose mixed political orientation gives them a greater impact than their population or economic output might warrant. Such states promise the greatest return on investment for U.S. presidential campaigns deciding where to allocate scarce time and resources. Likewise, in U.S. foreign policy, a focus on Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey can deliver a large geopolitical payoff, because their approach to the international order is more fluid and open than those of China or Russia. In addition, the choices that these four countries make – about whether to take on new global responsibilities, free ride on the efforts of established powers or complicate the solving of key challenges – may, together, decisively influence the trajectory of the current international order.
