ISTANBUL
All eyes will be fixed on the US next week as the candidates in the Nov. 5 election — former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — face off in what appears will be a tight race.
According to the most recent polls, Trump is leading Harris by a slim margin among voters. But besides those casting their ballots, the prospects of either a Trump or Harris presidency are also being discussed in countries around the globe.
Among the nations most eagerly awaiting the outcome of the US presidential race is undoubtedly Ukraine, which has been locked in an intense conflict with Russia for nearly 1,000 days.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Washington has continued to be Kyiv’s main partner, providing more than $64.1 billion in military aid to the country, according to a US State Department fact sheet published on Oct. 21.
Washington is also the largest donor of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, according to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), with its allocation of $237 million in additional humanitarian funding earlier this month. This brought total US humanitarian assistance to Kyiv and the region to nearly $3.8 billion.
With the administration of US President Joe Biden coming to an end, many question the future of Washington’s commitment to support Kyiv and which of the candidates is preferable for Ukrainians.
Kyiv’s official stance
Until now, Kyiv has approached both the Democratic and Republican candidates in the US presidential race equally to maintain bipartisan support ahead of the election.
During his visit to the US in September amid the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met individually with Harris and Trump, during which he presented his country’s “victory plan.”
The plan, the details of which were disclosed a month later in a parliamentary address, is composed of five major points, namely inviting Ukraine to join NATO, strengthening Ukraine’s capability to reclaim territory from Russia, deploying “a comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package on its territory,” developing Ukraine’s strategic economic potential, and ensuring post-conflict security in the Euro-Atlantic region.
Despite Kyiv’s intent to maintain a balanced approach, it has at times pushed back against remarks by Trump critical of Ukraine and the Biden administration's support for it against Moscow.
“My feeling is that Trump doesn’t really know how to stop the war, even if he might think he knows how,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with The New Yorker on Sept. 22 in response to a question on Trump’s comments at a presidential debate on wanting the conflict in Ukraine to end.
In the same interview, Zelenskyy also defined Trump’s vice-presidential candidate JD Vance as being “too radical,” arguing that his plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would involve surrendering Ukrainian territories to Russia, would mean that America is “headed for a global conflict” because “such a person will imply that the behavior of the aggressor is acceptable.”
“I don’t appreciate Zelenskyy coming to this country and telling the American taxpayers what they ought to do. He ought to say thank you to the American taxpayers,” Vance said a few days later during a campaign rally in response.
Kyiv on hold
While Kyiv has been officially trying to maintain a balanced stance with regard to the candidates in the US presidential election, many scenarios are being considered among Ukraine experts and Ukrainians.
According to Simon Schlegel, a senior analyst on Ukraine at the International Crisis Group, there is a sense that many important decisions on the part of Kyiv are on hold until after the election takes place.
Schlegel told Anadolu that not everybody in Ukraine is uniformly worried about the prospect of a second Trump presidency.
“Despite recent statements by Trump that Ukraine ‘is gone’ and that Zelenskyy was to blame for the beginning of the war, some Ukrainian observers cling to the hope that Trump's unpredictable foreign policies might hold pleasant surprises for Ukraine,” he said.
In this regard, Schlegel argued that if, for example, Trump would not be able to quickly reach a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, then his frustration would then lead him to instead throw his support behind Ukraine.
Still, he stressed that this is wishful thinking and that such hopes with regard to what advantages a possible Trump presidency could bring may be misguided.
Schlegel said that this situation, on the other hand, also reflects a lack of clarity about what Harris’ potential victory in the election would mean for Ukraine, despite the Democratic candidate hinting that she would largely continue Biden's “supportive but very cautious” approach towards Kyiv.
“Many Ukrainians have grown so frustrated with this course that they came to see a glimmer of hope in a more erratic but potentially less risk-averse Donald Trump,” said Schlegel.
However, most observers understand the potential dangers of Trump cutting back on US support for Ukraine and the possibility of Washington pushing Kyiv to negotiate with Russia from a position of weakness, he added.
