‘In terms of pressure, we are seeing baby steps from certain states,’ says political analyst Chris Doyle
US has to do much more to convince ‘a very skeptical global and domestic audience that it is serious about ending atrocities in Gaza,’ Doyle tells Anadolu
ISTANBUL
The US decision to abstain from this week’s Gaza cease-fire resolution at the UN Security Council has further fueled speculation of a widening schism between Washington and Israel.
With the move clearly angering Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who retaliated by calling off a high-level delegation visit to the US, observers are now closely watching how it impacts bilateral ties and Israel’s relations with the wider West.
However, experts caution against overstating the potential effect, stressing that Israel is still just facing pressure from its allies, which is nowhere near any sort of isolation.
According to political commentator Chris Doyle, the latest measures taken by countries against Israel can be best described as “baby steps.”
“In terms of pressure, we are seeing baby steps from certain states,” Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding (Caabu), told Anadolu.
He cited the example of Canada’s recent ban on weapons sales to Israel, while reports are also circulating that European nations, including Britain, are considering more sanctions on illegal Israeli settlers.
“So, there is a move now to actually take certain actions to hold Israel to account. But there are many baby steps,” he reiterated.
For example, Israel has just made the largest illegal seizure of occupied Palestinian land since the Oslo Accords of 1993, said Doyle.
He was referring to last week’s announcement by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich regarding over 800 hectares of land in the Jordan Valley in the occupied West Bank.
“We wait to see how the international community is going to react to that. It’s a huge theft of land that does not belong to Israel. It’s a massive violation of international law. It should lead to tangible consequences,” he said.
‘Definitely not isolation’
Political analyst Zeidon Alkinani emphasized that the worst Israel is facing at the moment is pressure from the international community.
“There’s no isolation. There might be pressure, but it’s definitely not isolation,” Alkinani, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, told Anadolu.
Isolation is what Iraq, Syria and Iran have faced over the years, he added.
On the bilateral level, Alkinani believes the apparent US shift will not have a drastic impact on ties with Israel.
“The US has enormously and unconditionally supported Israel politically and militarily, whether it’s in the Palestinian context or in many other contexts across the MENA region,” he said.
However, he said recent events are an interesting development and point to the possibility that Israel is “taking the American support for granted.”
For Doyle, the US position “doesn’t even scrape the barrel of the barest minimum to stop the atrocities” in Gaza.
“While it’s better than a veto, it still leaves the United States with a huge amount to catch up to bring Israel into line with international law and to hold it accountable,” he said.
Appeasement or a signal?
For Alkinani, the US not vetoing Monday’s UNSC resolution was a move to “please the public and definitely please the international community.”
Every decision of the US can also be related to its upcoming elections, he said.
Another factor would be the US feels that “Israel hasn’t really provided any compromises to Washington’s suggestions or warnings on how to gradually take a different stance … to balance and mitigate the anger and the hostility from all over the world,” he said.
This is primarily because of the fingers pointed at the US, which is seen as Israel’s main supporter, said the analyst.
He believes a lot of the sympathy Israel received from the West after the October 7 Hamas attacks is all gone now, particularly as it has now killed nearly 32,500 Palestinians, laid waste to large swaths of Gaza, displaced millions of people and left them facing famine and starvation.
Analyst Doyle also believes that public pressure and upcoming elections have played a role in US calculations.
But, he added, there is also “a genuine desire” to send a signal to the Israelis that the US “would not necessarily endorse everything that they are doing.”
However, he asserted that the US will have to do much more to convince “a very skeptical global and domestic audience that it is serious about ending the atrocities in Gaza.”
‘Far more significant consequences’ possible
According to Doyle, Israel has to change its ways or face the possibility of a stronger pushback from the international community.
“If Israel continues in the way that it is at the moment, denying aid into Gaza, blocking it, causing delays, not allowing humanitarian access … then it should expect more countries to make decisions that will in some way penalize it,” he said.
One of the main points of contention, he said, remains the ground operation in Rafah, which Israel has been threatening to launch despite international criticism, including from the US.
“If (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu does order a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah, then at that point, you will see some far more significant consequences being announced,” said Doyle.
“Whether the US will do a great deal in that event is not clear … but if it continues to conduct operations in the manner it has done up till now, where it has targeted civilian infrastructure and prevented aid, then I think Israel should expect more consequences.”
