BOGOTA, Colombia
Chileans head to the polls Sunday to elect a president amid soaring fears about rising crime and migration.
The contest is shaping up to be a clash between the far-left and far-right, likely resulting in a December runoff.
While eight candidates are vying for the presidency, the race to the Palacio de la Moneda has narrowed to a battle between the ruling coalition candidate and the ultra-conservative opposition.
The latest major polling by Radar Electoral suggests a high-stakes runoff Dec. 14 between the two leading candidates. Jeannette Jara, 51, from the Communist Party, a former minister in President Gabriel Boric’s government, leads with around 28% of the vote intention. Far-right Jose Antonio Kast, founder of the Republican Party, who lost the 2021 runoff to Boric, holds the second spot with approximately 20%.
The traditional right remains severely fragmented, with two other prominent figures battling for a place in the runoff: Johannes Kaiser from the National Libertarian Party has unexpectedly surged to 15%, placing him just ahead of veteran center-right politician Evelyn Matthei of the Chile Vamos Party, who sits at 14%.
Issues driving vote
Though Chile remains one of Latin America's safest countries, the perception of insecurity has dominated the campaign.
An October Ipsos survey found that almost two out of three Chilean adults, 63%, cite crime and violence as their foremost concern. The homicide rate has seen an increase, which, despite remaining low globally, at 6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, has profoundly affected public morale.
Candidates have also seized on the issue of irregular migration. The migrant population, consisting mostly of Venezuelans, has doubled in seven years, reaching 8.8% of Chile’s 20 million inhabitants. The right-wing candidates have explicitly associated undocumented immigrants with the rise in criminal activity.
From social continuity to 'Iron Fist'
The candidates´ distinct approaches to security and migration, the campaign’s defining issues, highlight the profound ideological contrast between the four frontrunners.
Jara heads a coalition of nine center-left parties, campaigning on a platform of social continuity, economic reform and anti-corruption. Her proposals focus on increasing average family income and strengthening social programs.
On security, she backs an annual investment of $700 million for police and anti-money laundering efforts, which includes lifting banking secrecy to track illicit funds. On migration, Jara supports a mandatory biometric census to identify immigrants and labor integration programs, advocating for a strengthened National Migration System.
Right-wing Kast is seen as the ultimate political antagonist to the current administration. An outspoken admirer of Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, he is running on a platform demanding a "heavy hand" to restore order.
His "Relentless Plan" proposes the construction of maximum-security prisons, isolation for drug lords and tougher sentences. On immigration, he is repeating his controversial proposal to dig a trench along the northern border to curb irregular entry from Bolivia and Peru. Further tightening his stance, Kast has vowed to withdraw "benefits for irregular immigrants in Chile in the areas of health, housing, and education."
Kast’s background remains a frequent point of contention. His father was a member of the Nazi Party, and his brother served as a minister during the Pinochet regime.
Matthei’s platform focuses on institutional stability and strong security measures. The 72-year-old economist is a veteran politician seeking the presidency for a second time. She advocates for adding up to 10,000 new police officers, creating a Military Border Police and supporting a more severe prison system. Like her right-wing counterparts, she endorses the mass deportation of foreign prisoners and undocumented immigrants, and seeks to establish illegal entry into the country as a criminal offense.
The surprise of the election has been Kaiser, an ultraconservative and outspoken defender of Pinochet. His reactionary and "unapologetic" rhetoric has successfully tapped into the discontent of young and disillusioned voters.
Kaiser’s hardline proposals include the mass expulsion of foreigners and the establishment of a refugee camp to confine deportees. He has promised to strengthen the police and revive compulsory military service. He has even advocated for the death penalty for crimes like murder and rape.
With the electorate now bound by mandatory voting laws, turnout is expected to be significantly higher than in previous years, introducing a wild card element into a deeply polarized political landscape.
The stage is set for a month-long ideological battle leading into a December runoff, which will ultimately determine the political trajectory for the next four years.
Along with the presidential election, parliamentary elections will also be held Nov. 16.
