NASA increases probability of 'city-killer' asteroid striking Earth to 3.1%

WASHINGTON

NASA increased the probably Tuesday that the “city-killer" 2024 YR4 asteroid will smack into the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, to 3.1%.

The now 1-in-32 chance is a significant bump from a previous estimate of a 2.8% chance that the asteroid will hit Earth in seven years. Probabilities had hovered around 2% in recent weeks amid daily updates from NASA.

The asteroid is large enough to cause localized damage in the "unlikely event" that it hits the Earth, according to the space agency.

But it has passed the 1% hit probability threshold for government agencies involved in planetary defense, as well as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group and the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs, to be notified of its existence.

2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet (40 - 90 meters) wide. It was first detected by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile on Dec. 27.

It has since gained international attention as scientists continue to study its chances of impact, though odds remain overwhelming that it is likely to miss Earth altogether.