By Aamir Latif
KARACHI, Pakistan
Pakistan finds itself at between a hard and rock place over a simmering Middle East crisis that has seen the blockade and severing of ties with Qatar by several Arab states, including Muslim-heavyweight Saudi Arabia on terrorism charges, according to local experts.
The only nuclear Muslim state has indicated that it will remain neutral in the crisis, however if the diplomatic tensions further simmer and turn into a regional conflict, it will be “very hard” for Islamabad to maintain its “neutrality”, experts say.
Recently, five Arab countries -- Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Yemen -- cut ties with Qatar, accusing Doha of supporting terrorism. Qatar denied the accusations, calling the move "unjustified".
The two powerful regional countries -Turkey and Iran- have promised Qatar food supplies and sending troops.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesman Nafees Zakaria told reporters this week that his country was “concerned” over escalating tensions in the Middle East but declined to endorse one side or another.
Islamabad, however, said it would continue to import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from Qatar under a 15-year long agreement the two sides inked in 2015.
“Pakistan is walking a delicate terrain compared to any other Muslim country due to nature of its economic and strategic relations with Qatar and Saudi Arabia- with Saudi Arabia even deeper-“, Talat Masood, an Islamabad-based security analyst told Anadolu Agency.
“Both countries are Pakistan’s important economic and strategic partners, therefore, if the crisis deepens and turns into a regional conflict (of which chances are very dim), we will be in a very difficult situation to maintain our neutrality”, he said.
Ikram Sehgal, a Karachi-based defense and security analyst says Turkey’s supporting Qatar has further complicated the issue for Pakistan.
“It’s not only Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar only. Now, Pakistan’s time-tested friend Turkey is also involved in the crisis –in one way or the other- making it difficult for Pakistan to take side of one or another,” Sehgal, editor of the country’s reputed Pakistan defense Journal, told Anadolu Agency.
“Pakistan’s neutral policy is the best policy in the current circumstances” Sehgal said referring to a resolution adopted by Pakistan’s parliament urging the countries involved in the crisis to resolve their differences through dialogue.
The resolution also urged Pakistani government to help mediate in the crisis, which could turn out to be disastrous for the regional security and stability.
Pakistan, in 2015, managed to resist pressure to wade into Yemen conflict following a parliamentary vote barring the country from joining the Saudi-led war despite Riyadh’s demand.
-Pakistan's Stakes
Pakistan’s relationship with the Gulf states are mainly based on economics. Huge amounts of remittances sent by expatriate Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf states have a significant impact on the country’s economy.
Saudi Arabia and UAE jointly host over 3 million Pakistanis, whereas Qatar, a smaller Gulf state, is home to only 115,000 Pakistanis.
Saudi Arabia which alone hosts 1.9 million Pakistanis, tops the list of countries with highest remittances to Pakistan- over $4.5 billion annually- followed by the UAE with over $3.47 billion, according to State Bank of Pakistan.
Qatar contributes only $30 million annually to Pakistan’s economy in the form of remittances.
Also, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are Pakistan’s largest regional trading partners, which exported goods and services, mainly oil, to the tune of over $7 billion to Pakistan in the current fiscal year. Islamabad’s exports to UAE and Saudi Arabia stood at $852 million and $300 million in the current fiscal year.
Whereas, Pakistan exported goods worth $42.6 million to Qatar and imported goods and services of $864 million from Doha in the current fiscal.
On the diplomatic front, the royal families of Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had close ties with Pakistani rulers. In 2000, the then Saudi King Shah Abdullah bin Abel Aziz had brokered a deal between Pakistan’s then military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf and the ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, under which the latter was allowed to live in exile in Jeddah for 8 years.
Sharif, who is serving for the third time as premier, is currently depending heavily on the testimony of former Qatari prime minister Hamad Bin Jasim Bin Jaber Al Thani, as part of his defense in an ongoing investigation against him in Panama papers scandal.
-Turkey's Role
Analysts say the ongoing Middle East crisis will not last for a longer period due to a number of strategic and economic compulsions, including Turkey’s support to Qatar.
“Turkey’s wise move (to send troops to Qatar) has diminished the chances of turning the crisis into an armed conflict,” Gen. Masood said.
He noted that Riyadh was already occupied with Yemen conflict, and would not be in a position to open a new front with Turkey and Tehran.
Also, he added, the huge presence of the United States in Qatar, including U.S. Central Command’s most important overseas airbase, would not allow Riyadh to go for any military action against Doha.
“According to my assessment, this boycott- diplomatic or economic- won’t sustain for a longer period. Saudi Arabia does not supply foods and other items to Qatari people alone but to its biggest ally- the United States forces- based in Doha,” he opined.
Moreover, he added, Turkey and Tehran’s offer for food supplies and use of their air space would not let the boycott hit Qatar hugely.
