2023 on track to becoming hottest year on record, says study

LONDON

After this June was declared the warmest on the over-170-year record, 2023 is likely to set a new high annual temperature average, according to new research.

"Globally, June 2023 was the warmest June since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850, breaking the record previously set in June 2022," according to the study posted last week by Berkeley Earth, a California-based independent non-profit focused on land temperature data analysis for climate science.

Noting that the global mean temperature this June was 1.47 C (2.64 F) above the 1850-1900 average, it said 2023 was "now likely to become a new record warm year (81% chance)."

The oceans also saw a record temperature increase of 1.12 C in June, the study added.

Last month's record heat was followed by 10 of the warmest days in history, with the first week of July being the "hottest week on record" as global average temperatures broke records daily after July 3, according to preliminary data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The surge in temperatures comes as the El Nino effect, officially declared to have begun in early June, continues to strengthen, causing weather events such as heavy rains, floods, droughts, and forest fires.

Global temperatures last peaked in 2016, a strong El Nino year.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is part of a natural climate pattern called the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.

Seven years ago, a notably intense El Nino event developed in the Pacific, causing a series of dangerous changes in global weather patterns.

As a result, Indonesia suffered from severe drought, exacerbating devastating wildfires while heavy rains inundated parts of the Horn of Africa, flooding villages and agricultural areas.

With El Nino making a return this year, experts suggest it will be another strong one, raising concerns about extreme weather in the coming months.

*Writing by Gozde Bayar