The Black Sea basin could warm by as much as 4 degrees Celsius by 2070, with rising temperatures expected to significantly increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, experts told Anadolu.
Baris Onol from Istanbul Technical University’s Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics warned that higher temperatures will likely lead to more intense rainfall, as warmer air holds more moisture.
A study, conducted by Onol along with doctoral researcher Mehmet Baris Kelebek and Fulden Batibeniz of the University of Bern, analyzed climate projections under a high-emissions scenario by comparing the periods 2005-14 and 2061-70.
The two-year study focused on short-duration heavy rainfall, heatwaves, declining snow cover, and seasonal shifts in precipitation, assessing potential climate-related risks for countries surrounding the Black Sea, as well as Türkiye’s Black Sea and Marmara regions and parts of the Aegean, Central Anatolia, and northern Eastern Anatolia.
Findings suggested that average temperatures in the basin could rise by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in winter, around 2.5 degrees in spring, 3 degrees in summer, and between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees in autumn.
In mountainous parts of Eastern Anatolia, temperatures are projected to increase more sharply, with maximum temperatures in some areas potentially rising by up to 7 degrees in March.
One of the most notable impacts of this warming is the expected prolongation of heatwaves. While such events currently last fewer than 5 to 10 days per year, projections indicate they could extend to around 50 to 55 days annually.
The study also pointed to a significant rise in extremely hot days, which could account for up to 18% of days across much of the region and as high as 28% in higher elevations of Eastern Anatolia.
Snow cover is projected to decline by about 20% in spring, while maximum snow depth in some high-altitude areas could fall from 125 centimeters to 80 centimeters.
Dual risk of drought and floods
The research highlighted a contrasting trend in precipitation, with summer rainfall in the Marmara and western Black Sea regions expected to drop by more than 50%, while winter precipitation could increase by up to 20% in some areas.
Researchers said this pattern signals a growing risk of both drought and sudden flooding.
The eastern Black Sea coast, parts of Georgia and Romania, as well as Istanbul and surrounding Marmara areas, are identified as potential “hotspots” for extreme weather events.
In Istanbul, daily maximum rainfall could rise from around 210 millimeters today to as much as 437 millimeters in the future.
Climate impacts to intensify after 2040
Onol said the research was shaped by a series of recent flood disasters in the Black Sea region.
Noting that heavy rainfall and flooding have increased across the Eastern, Central, and Western Black Sea regions, Onol said: “We have been working on the Black Sea region for a long time. We wanted to expand this further and conduct a much more specific, event-based study on what lies ahead.”
He also said that high-resolution climate simulations were used to assess regional impacts.
Onol added that the focus on the 2061-70 period reflects both computational constraints and the significance of the timeframe, which falls within a human lifetime.
He said advanced climate studies show impacts will intensify sharply after the 2040s, with the 2060s likely to face significantly harsher conditions as warming surpasses 1.5°C and approaches 2°C.
Faster warming in high-altitude areas
Onol emphasized that one of the most striking findings is the rapid warming in elevated regions, particularly in Eastern Anatolia and the Upper Euphrates basin, where extreme daily temperatures in March could increase by 6 to 7 degrees.
He noted that heatwaves are no longer confined to summer and may spread throughout the year, posing risks to agriculture.
“A heatwave in March can trigger early plant growth, which may then be damaged by frost in April,” he said.
The study also found that extreme rainfall could intensify significantly, with scenarios suggesting that maximum daily precipitation in Istanbul could double.
He said heatwaves are expected to become longer and occur year-round, with early-season warming followed by frost posing serious risks to agriculture.
Black Sea increasingly vulnerable
Onol underlined that the Black Sea is warming faster than many other seas due to its semi-enclosed structure, with some areas experiencing temperature increases of 0.5 to 1 degree per decade.
Sea surface temperatures in summer have already risen from 25-26 degrees to 29-30 degrees Celsius, increasing evaporation and moisture in the atmosphere.
He said the Black Sea is warming faster than many other seas, with temperatures in some areas rising up to 1°C per decade and summer sea surface temperatures reaching as high as 29-30°C.
This warming increases evaporation and atmospheric moisture, which, under the right conditions, can significantly intensify extreme rainfall, potentially by 30-40% with a 2°C rise in temperature.
He stressed that tackling climate change requires not only reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also adapting infrastructure, urban planning, agriculture, and water management to new conditions.
“The atmosphere has no borders. It is not enough for a single country to act alone, but there is much we can do locally. Adaptation policies can no longer be postponed,” he added.
*Writing by Asiye Yilmaz
