Askin Kiyagan
18 October 2024•Update: 18 October 2024
ISTANBUL
There is a “deadlock” in the process of forming a new Austrian government following the victory of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in general elections on Sept. 29.
President Alexander Van der Bellen described the situation as a “political deadlock” as other parties did not want to form a coalition with the FPO after the election that was won by the far-right party.
Van der Bellen, instead of giving authority to form a government to the party that received the most votes in the election, put the responsibility on the three major parties. Van der Bellen, who wanted the parties to meet among themselves, said he would give authority to the party that can obtain a majority in parliament and is ready to cooperate, leading to concerns that the government formation process will be painful.
Political scientist and University of Vienna faculty member David Campbell evaluated the deadlock and coalition possibilities for Anadolu.
Campbell noted that the FPO's victory drew significant attention within Europe and internationally. He emphasized that the success of far-right parties in European Parliament (EP) elections on June 6 - 9, had already hinted at the outcome. Campbell added that the FPO secured a win by attracting votes from the center-right Austrian People's Party (OVP) and previously non-voting citizens in EP elections.
Strategic move by president
“I think Alexander Van der Bellen has made a very clever, politically strategic chess move. First of all, he partly overturned an approach that has been a tradition until now. This can be seen as a kind of political innovation. And he sent the ball back,” said Campbell.
Pointing out that comments that the far-right extremists could “play the victim” with the propaganda: “We were not given the authority to form a government even though we were the first party,” after the extraordinary move of the president, are due to a lack of knowledge of history.
Campbell noted that although the Social Democratic Party (SPO) came first in the 1999 elections, the center-right OVP and the far-right FPO agreed to inform the president at that time that they had the necessary majority in parliament to form a government and they came to power without the SPO, the winner of the election, being given the authority to form a government.
‘I do not see an option where Kickl can become prime minister as possible’
Campbell pointed out that the FPO, which argued it should be given the authority to form a government directly since it won the election, was actually the first to break the tradition.
“Regarding possible coalition forecasts, I do not see an option in which (Herbert) Kickl (FPO) would or could become prime minister in the current situation,” he said. “This is a guess, I could be wrong, but it is unlikely. I think an OVP-FPO coalition is only possible if the Freedom Party gives up its demand for the prime ministership.”
Far-right extremists will want to be part of the government instead of staying in the opposition, said Campbell, who indicated that such a situation can only be possible if Kickl renounces the prime minister's seat.
“The Freedom Party can also say that; neither Kickl nor (Karl) Nehammer (OVP) will be prime minister, there can be a neutral name, a compatible person. But it is very difficult to predict that the FPO will tend in this direction,” he said.
Campbell noted that the far-right extremists may aim to increase their votes by staying in the opposition and waiting for the failure of the coalition government to be formed, but it is unlikely that the FPO will be able to reach the vote rate that can rule alone, and it is also unlikely that far-right Kickl will become prime minister as long as Van der Bellen remains in office.
He said although the option of a coalition government in which far-right extremists would be a part is not on the horizon, there are serious concerns about the internal and external problems that may arise if the FPO comes to power, as well as serious anxiety about Kickl's personality.
He stated that issues such as the far-right's definition of Austria as “a fortress (without immigrants)” or questions about how loyal Kickl would be to the EU and the possibility of Austria leaving the EU with Kickl as prime minister attracted attention.
Campbell said in the coalition option without the far right, the OVP and SPO could form a government numerically, but that option would not be a strong government and a third party would be needed.
Noting that the New Austrian Party (NEOS) was the second winner of the election and considering the problems experienced by the Green Party and the OVP, Campbell said: “I think both the OVP and the Social Democrats will consider NEOS instead of the Greens as the third small partner of the coalition.”
*Writing by Efe Ozkan
