- 'In a process that has been going on for a decade now, the populist right, both in and outside the Conservative Party, has effectively managed to shift that party's center of gravity in its direction,' says Tim Bale, professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London
- Advocacy groups have documented a wave of former officials rallying behind anti-immigration Restore Britain, viewing Reform
The upcoming Makerfield by-election on June 18 has fast become the most critical battleground in modern British politics, exposing deep divisions on the electoral right.
Triggered by the sudden resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, the contest sees Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham attempting to return to Westminster.
Yet, while the headline battle is framed as a clash between Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, the real focus of political strategists is a 53-year-old local businesswoman named Rebecca Shepherd.
Shepherd is standing for Restore Britain, a hardline right-wing party founded in February by the suspended Reform UK MP for Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe.
Lowe, who split with Nigel Farage last year, has positioned his new outfit explicitly to the right of Reform.
Supported by a large online following -- amplified significantly by Elon Musk, the owner of the US social media company X --Restore Britain has quickly evolved from a fringe group into a potent spoiler.
A recent Survation poll of the constituency puts Burnham narrowly ahead on 43%, with Kenyon on 40% and Shepherd capturing a crucial 7%.
'Tories no longer sound much like a mainstream, center-right party'
This right-wing fragmentation is not an isolated local skirmish, but the culmination of a decade-long drift.
According to Tim Bale, professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, the systemic shift in British politics is profound.
"In a process that has been going on for a decade now, the populist right, both in and outside the Conservative Party, has effectively managed to shift that party's center of gravity in its direction.
“Whether we are talking about migration, about net zero, about Europe, or about the culture wars more generally, the Tories no longer sound much like a mainstream, center-right party," he told Anadolu.
Now, however, the target of this pull has changed. It is no longer just the Conservative Party being dragged to the far right, but Reform UK itself.
Commenting on the emerging rivalry between Farage’s party and these newer, more extreme forces, Bale observed “what Tommy Robinson and politicians like Rupert Lowe, leader of Restore, are doing is pulling Reform UK further right -- particularly when it comes to issues like deportation."
Rise of 'Remigration' politics
This pressure is visible in the rhetoric now dominating the right-wing ecosystem.
Restore Britain has openly championed "remigration" -- which it describes as "the most ambitious program of mass deportations ever seen in Britain."
Lowe himself recently caused outrage by suggesting deportees be sent to a "midge-infested island."
This uncompromising stance has made Restore Britain a magnet for various extreme, neo-fascist elements.
Advocacy groups have documented a wave of former officials from Patriotic Alternative, the British Democratic Party, and the British National Party (BNP) rallying behind Lowe's registered party, viewing Reform UK as too "vanilla."
Simultaneously, the street-level wing of the movement has also gained momentum.
Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, widely known as Tommy Robinson, recently addressed tens of thousands of supporters in Parliament Square.
The rally, which cost the Metropolitan Police an estimated $6 million to secure, featured highly charged ethnonationalist and Islamophobic rhetoric.
Figures like Robinson and right-wing populist Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox have also expanded their focus, increasing their social media output on abortion, framing it as "premeditated murder" to align with US right-wing funding networks.
Electoral gains for the far right
This radicalization is already yielding concrete electoral dividends.
In the May local elections, Great Yarmouth First, a local affiliate party endorsed by Restore Britain, contested 10 council seats in Norfolk and won all 10.
This clean sweep directly prevented Reform UK from obtaining an overall majority on the Norfolk County Council, forcing the local authority into no overall control.
For the traditional center-right, the consequences of this shift have been catastrophic. The Conservatives suffered a near-total collapse in the Norfolk elections, losing 50 seats while Reform UK gained 40.
Bale argued that by repeatedly emphasizing such issues, mainstream center-right parties have helped raise their political importance while strengthening challengers further to the right, rather than benefiting themselves.
"Traditional center-right parties have spent years addressing these anxieties with the result that the issues involved have become more and more salient, doing nothing for those parties but instead boosting support for insurgent parties on their right flank.
For the center-right, he said, it will be best to focus “on its traditional strengths -- low taxes, controlled spending, and sound finance."
