By Alyssa McMurtry
MADRID
With less than 24 hours before polls open in the U.K. referendum on EU membership, the repercussions of of a possible British exit, or Brexit, are being carefully weighed across Europe and further afield.
In Spain, where around 1 million of British ex-pats live full- or part-time and 16 million visit every year, concerns about Britain leaving the EU are widespread.
“This referendum has been a mistake, it’s opened a Pandora’s Box,” Spain’s acting Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said earlier this week in a roundtable discussion reported by Spanish daily Expansion.
He added: “It’s populist in character, provoking tensions and divisions… [Brexit] would be horrible.”
A recent survey by the Germany-based Bertelsmann Foundation showed Spain leads EU states opposed to Brexit with 64 per cent of Spaniards wanting the U.K. to stay and 78 per cent in favor of further EU integration.
Alongside Spain’s commercial ties to the U.K. - trade between the countries amounted to around $36 billion last year - the issue of Gibraltar, a British territory located on Spain’s southern tip, has long been a thorny issue between London and Madrid.
Gibraltar residents have the right to vote in Thursday’s EU referendum and last week U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron flew to the enclave to remind Britons of the threat of leaving the EU.
A rally, which would have capped the first visit by a British premier since 1968, was cancelled following the killing of Labour lawmaker Jo Cox.
However, the trip ruffled feathers in Spain and was criticized by acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. “What’s being debated is whether the U.K. remains in the EU or will leave the EU and the campaign for that should be conducted in the U.K., not in Gibraltar,” he told Spanish radio.
Distinctly British
He added: “Spain continues to think that Gibraltar is part of its own national territory, not Britain’s.”
The Spanish claim to Gibraltar has periodically seen it block the territories’ borders - a tactic that has been reined in by the EU.
Partly for this reason, support for remaining in the EU is near-unanimous among Gibraltarians.
Outside Gibraltar, many stretches of Spain’s southern coast have a distinctly British feel to them.
British tourists have been flocking to Spanish beaches in droves since the 1970s and many local restaurants, bars and hotels are run by ex-pats.
Among these migrants, opinions on leaving or remaining are as varied as they are in the U.K.
Matthew Perret, a British translator and comedian, told Anadolu Agency: “The average Brit thinks it’s normal to be able to retire in Spain, work in Spain, use free healthcare in Spain and have an English-speaking doctor in Spain… yet the Leave campaign talks of immigrants as a threat and Nigel Farage [leader of the anti-EU U.K. Independence Party] has publicly complained about ‘not hearing any English spoken’ on London trains.”
British residents and tourists are not just attracted by the familiarity of the Spanish coast. The high exchange rate between the euro and the pound currently makes it an even more attractive destination.
The opposite is true for the estimated 200,000 Spaniards residing in the U.K., many of them young workers unable to find employment at home.
Very negative
Earlier this month, Rajoy warned of the negative impact of a Brexit for British citizens in Spain.
“It would be very negative if the United Kingdom left the European Union,” he told Spanish news agency EFE. “Negative for everybody… but, above all, it would be very negative for British citizens…
“Leaving the European Union would mean that they would lose their right to move freely, work and do business within the largest economic area, the largest market in the world.”
Spain is also mired in political uncertainty as Catalonians call for independence and a repeat of December’s general election looms on Sunday, three days after Britain’s referendum.
Although the possibility of the EU being reduced to 27 members has not featured prominently in the Spanish election campaign, not one of the four major parties wants to see Britain leave.
Salvador Llaudes, a researcher at leading Spanish think tank El Cano, said the union had become an integral part of Spain since it joined in 1986.
“European values are part of the DNA of Spain now,” he told Anadolu Agency. “Before the EU, Spain was quite isolated and Spain’s ideas of modernization and democracy are tied into European integration, which is why we don’t see any Euroskeptic parties coming into power here.
“In the case of a Brexit vote, it’s hard to say how it would influence the elections. Perhaps if the markets drop substantially, voters will be more likely to choose more stable options.”
However, Llaudes pointed to one aspect of a Brexit largely ignored by the campaigns in the U.K. - the years it would take to untie the links between Britain and Europe that have grown over the past 40 years.
Both Britons in Spain and Spaniards in the U.K. will see no automatic change in status and negotiations on redefining relations between the two countries would be likely to grind on for years.
