OPINION - How is Trump dismantling the American order?

The author is the dean of the Faculty of Political Science at Aydin Adnan Menderes University.

US President Donald Trump will go down in history as the leader who ended American hegemony and accelerated its decline. The US decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz stands in direct contradiction to the principles of international free trade and freedom of navigation -- the very foundations of American power. With this decision, Trump is accelerating the decline of the United States.

Trump had already abandoned the order established after 1945 under US leadership with the West by withdrawing from international organizations. He then began to dismantle his own hegemony by abandoning policies such as coalition-building and multilateralism. Eventually, by abandoning legitimacy, he brought the very notion of hegemonic power to an end. With the Iran war, he shifted to an imperial strategy, and through rhetoric about reducing countries to the "Stone Age" and destroying civilization, he revealed himself as a significant threat to international security, effectively a destabilizing force in global affairs.

Now, Trump is dismantling, with his own hands and at a much faster pace, the international order built on the interests of the US and the West. Historically, the rise and fall of great powers occur over long periods, yet Trump is accelerating America's decline in an unexpected way that runs counter to the normal flow of history. The collapse of great powers has historically led to increased instability and war; Trump's acceleration of this process may result in more frequent conflict and instability.

Imperial posture

At this point, the Iran war constitutes both a rupture and a turning point for the US and the international order under its leadership. It marks both the end of American hegemony and the transition to an imperial posture -- yet that posture, too, has encountered its limits. The US failed to achieve its objectives in Iran, encountered unexpected resistance, and ultimately returned -- through a ceasefire process -- to its starting point regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This means that Trump's imperial strategy was turned back from Tehran. The Iran war not only exposed the limits of US power but also led to its isolation by allies and NATO. Perhaps the only positive outcome of the Iran war is that it prevented -- or at least delayed -- Trump's presumed plan to quickly subdue Iran by eliminating its revolutionary leadership and then applying a Venezuela-like outcome to countries such as Cuba and Colombia.

With the ceasefire, the Iran war has, for now, entered a prolonged negotiation phase, largely due to Israel. Israel will not want the US to abandon the Iran war midway, because from Israel's perspective, it failed to achieve its objectives in the war and would be left alone with a wounded but still dangerous Iran if the US withdraws. Although Iran -- now considerably weakened in its strategic capacity and pushed to the margins of the regional power equation -- still remains stronger than many Gulf countries. Therefore, the instability already present in the Middle East is likely to continue until a new balance of power is established, and during this period, Israel may continue unilateral military actions against countries of its choosing.

Further concretize a new regional balance

The emerging quartet of Türkiye, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt during the Iran war has the potential to institutionalize and bring a new balance of power and order to the region. If sustained, this initiative could further concretize a new regional balance. In this context, what was previously only a rhetorical claim to regional leadership could become a practical reality through the institutionalization of this quartet.

From this point on, the prolonged negotiation process between the US and Iran will either continue as a low-intensity conflict or evolve into a proxy dynamic, similar to how the US has engaged Russia in Ukraine -- this time with China potentially using Iran as a proxy to wear down the US in the Middle Eastern "quagmire." In fact, US accusations that China is supplying weapons to Iran can be interpreted as part of China's strategy to prolong the conflict and weaken the US.

Furthermore, China's potential military engagement with Iran signals a shift from its long-standing policy of rising as a global economic actor through trade and investment without direct military involvement. This "peaceful rise" strategy may now be giving way to a more assertive role in global politics. Thus, the Iran war not only opens a "Pandora's box" in global politics -- marking a new phase in US-China relations -- but also indicates a period in which China's political and military engagements will become more prominent.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.