- ‘Türkiye has the potential to play a critically important and necessary role,’ says Karolina Wanda Olszowska, co-founder and president of Turkish Studies Institute in Krakow, Poland
- Türkiye and Istanbul are the places where the talks can take place, says Ondrej Ditrych, senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies
BRUSSELS/ANKARA
Experts believe that Istanbul is the most suitable venue for renewed direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after three years, due to Türkiye’s consistent efforts towards achieving a fair and lasting peace.
Attention has shifted to the talks set to take place in Istanbul on Thursday, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to initiate unconditional and direct talks with Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed his attendance at negotiations in Türkiye, and in light of these developments, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated Ankara’s longstanding support and declared its readiness to host the talks to help achieve a just and lasting peace.
The failed negotiations held in Istanbul in April 2022, just two months after the war began, are seen as a missed opportunity.
European countries have allocated billions of euros to support Ukraine against Russia over the past three years.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump, since taking office earlier this year, has taken a strong stance on ending the war. His approach of sidelining Europe has caused unease in Brussels.
Karolina Wanda Olszowska, from the Institute for Turkish Studies in Krakow, told Anadolu that the main change since the 2022 Istanbul talks has been the increasing pressure from various actors, including the US, for a peace agreement.
Stressing that Russia has been significantly weakened both militarily and economically due to ongoing international sanctions, war, and casualties, Olszowska said: “What we are witnessing is a convergence of internal fatigue and economic strain with growing international pressure to end hostilities.”
Noting Türkiye’s balanced relations with Ukraine, Europe, and Russia since the beginning of the war, she said: “From the perspective of Ukraine and the European Union, there is little doubt that Türkiye represents the most viable and trusted mediator at this stage.”
'Türkiye as the best possible venue for peace negotiations'
"Türkiye has the potential to play a critically important and necessary role," she also said, adding that Türkiye is a NATO member and a country closely associated with the EU.
"A key pillar of European security, Türkiye also possesses a deep understanding of the risks posed by an overly empowered Russia. It is Türkiye, after all, that has consistently opposed Russian influence in Syria, Libya, parts of Africa, and the Black Sea region.
"Moreover, Türkiye has repeatedly reminded the international community that Crimea was, and remains, part of Ukraine," Olszowska said.
"I believe that Türkiye, as it leads these mediation efforts, will not lose sight of these realities. That is why I see Türkiye as the best possible venue for peace negotiations. I trust that Ankara can help bring about an end to the war, not at any cost, but on terms that preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. Only such an outcome can ensure lasting security for Türkiye, for Poland, and Europe as a whole," she added.
Expressing hope that the negotiations will result in a ceasefire, she added:” I also hope this marks the beginning of a series of negotiations that could eventually lead to lasting peace.
'Fairly skeptical' on Russia's stance
Ondrej Ditrych of the EU Institute for Security Studies, also told Anadolu that Türkiye and Istanbul are the places where the talks can take place.
Referring to the 2022 talks as a precedent, Ditrych noted that it remains unclear what kind of position Russia will bring to the negotiations.
He expressed doubt that Russia has changed its stance and suggested that Russia might be aiming to demonstrate to the US that it is willing to negotiate rather than genuinely seeking peace.
“There is the role of the Turkish Government, and then President Erdogan. So, I think it's a very sensitive game to play,” he said, adding that Russia’s negotiation proposal “might be one of those tactical movements which can result in some sort of minor and temporary change in their positions.”
“But I'm fairly skeptical that without, real pressure, they will really move from their positions that are quite maximalist when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine,” he added.
Amanda Paul, Türkiye and Ukraine expert at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, said Erdogan has been working for a just and sustainable solution for Ukraine from the very beginning.
She stated that Türkiye remains willing to host talks today just as it did in 2022, and added that Putin had described the 2022 talks as a kind of "starting point" or “an example of the sort of ending that he's looking for.”
Paul expressed skepticism about Russia’s position, emphasizing that recent Russian rhetoric has shown an intention to seize all Ukrainian territory, she said: "But at the end of the day, I don't believe that the Russians are interested in any sort of ceasefire. President Putin remains committed to his original strategic objectives."
Russia-Ukraine war and negotiations
The war, which began with Russia’s attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, has led to the partial annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
With Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine lost control of about one-fifth of its territory.
The US and European countries have provided significant military and economic support to Ukraine while imposing severe sanctions on Russia for its annexations.
After initial meetings in Belarus, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine met on March 10, 2022, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
Türkiye brought the parties together again on March 29, 2022, in Istanbul.
The consensus reached during the Istanbul negotiations fell apart amid accusations of civilian killings in the city of Bucha and claims that the UK and the US opposed the agreement.
Despite the intensification of the war, Türkiye continued its efforts for peace and, with the support of the UN, brought the parties together again in the same year, resulting in the internationally acclaimed Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement.
Erdogan, one of the few leaders able to talk to both sides, has continued to offer to host and mediate peace talks. With Donald Trump’s election as the US president, diplomatic activity has regained momentum.
On May 11, Russian President Putin proposed resuming the direct negotiations that were cut off three years ago, this time without preconditions, and requested that Türkiye host the talks in Istanbul on May 15. Ukraine responded positively to the proposal, and the international community welcomed the Istanbul peace talks agenda.
