DUBAI
The UN's 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28), being held for the first time this year in a major oil and gas exporter country, is expected to be the largest climate summit to date, while negotiations on the phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels, the Loss and Damage Fund and climate finance are expected to be tough due to differences of opinion among countries.
The COP28, chaired this year by the UAE, will be held between Nov. 30 and Dec. 12 at Expo City Dubai, which the country describes as a smart and futuristic destination for business and innovation.
According to the information compiled by Anadolu, more than 70,000 delegates from different countries are expected to attend the COP28 and the summit is expected to be the largest climate summit to date.
After the opening day of the event, the World Climate Summit, which will be held on December 1-2, will be dedicated to the speeches of the leaders.
The leaders of the world's two biggest polluters, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are not expected to attend the COP28.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the UK's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are among the leaders expected to attend the summit.
King Charles III is also expected to give a speech at the COP28.
While the human tragedy and geopolitical tension in the Middle East due to Israel's occupation of Gaza continues, it is estimated that 20 delegates from the public sector will attend the COP28 representing Israel.
Pope Francis, the spiritual leader of Catholics and President of the Vatican, who was previously expected to attend the summit, will not be able to attend due to health problems.
COP28 presidency in shadow of criticism
The COP, which was described as the "highest decision-making body" by the UN, has been organized in a different country every year since 1995.
The COP presidency is elected by one of the countries nominated for hosting from the regions of Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, and Western Europe.
Since it was the turn of the Asia-Pacific group this year, the UAE took the presidency of the COP after receiving no objections to its candidacy for hosting in May 2021.
In addition to the UAE being a major oil producer country, the selection of Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the Chief Executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, one of the world's largest oil companies, and president of the renewable energy company Masdar, as COP28 President has put the UAE in the crosshairs of criticism.
Ahead of the summit, Al Jaber called for the COP28 to be a turning point to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, Al Jaber's position that this goal requires a gradual reduction in the demand for and supply of all fossil fuels raises concerns that he could play a decisive role in the negotiations on fossil fuels.
While the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, to 1.5 degrees Celsius, requires an end to fossil fuel use and production, there is no agreed roadmap on how fast and exactly when this process can be completed.
UN data shows that the rise in global temperature, caused predominantly by fossil fuels, is approaching 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
While scientists are calling for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels to limit the rise in temperature, emissions need to be cut by 42% by 2030.
Phase-out of fossil fuel use
At this year's summit, there are critical issues that stand out in terms of climate jargon and constitute the main items on the agenda.
One of these, the negotiations on phase-down and the phase-out of fossil fuels, is expected to be the scene of the hottest debates at COP28.
Members of the High Ambition Coalition, including the EU countries, Chile, Colombia, Ethiopia, New Zealand, Marshall Islands and Senegal, support fossil fuel phase-out.
India and African countries believe that developed countries should phase out fossil fuels sooner, while China finds the target unrealistic.
Global Stocktake
The first Global Stocktake (GST), a component of the Paris Agreement that involves assessing the collective response to climate change every five years, is scheduled to be finalized at COP28.
The GST's preliminary findings, the first assessments of which began last year and were released in September, show that the world's action to limit global warming is grossly inadequate.
Following its negotiated conclusion, it is hoped that the GST will mobilize countries for stronger climate action going forward in their national contributions to the UN, which include policies to combat climate change.
Loss and Damage Fund
Although the results of last year's COP27 in Egypt were disappointing, it was a consolation that countries agreed on the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund.
The fund is designed to compensate countries that are most vulnerable to the exacerbating effects of climate change.
The Transition Committee, tasked with making recommendations to the COP28, has met five times since last year, and after tense negotiations this month, an agreement was reached that the World Bank would be the interim host of the fund, in line with the demands of developed countries.
Alongside this agreement, which is subject to certain conditions, the consensus is that the fund's baseline should exceed $150 billion annually.
The expected outcome for the fund at the COP28 is to operationalize the fund, and the EU, Denmark and the UAE are expected to announce new commitments to the fund.
John Kerry, the Special Climate Envoy of the US, one of the world's two biggest polluters, has previously said that his country could contribute a few million dollars to the fund.
In addition, the gap in climate finance and the ongoing debate on reforming multilateral financial institutions are expected to remain a priority at COP28.
Adaptation
As the fight to slow global temperature rise continues, particularly by reducing the use of fossil fuels, adaptation measures need to be stepped up to adjust to the irreversible impacts of climate change.
At the COP28, negotiators hope to launch the Global Goal on Adaptation to set a global framework for climate adaptation.
According to recent data from the UN Environment Program, the climate finance gap for adaptation in developing countries is between $194 billion and $366 billion annually through 2030.
Tripling renewable energy capacity
The COP28 President UAE aims to reach an agreement on tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the pace of progress in energy efficiency.
Tripling global renewable energy capacity would mean an increase from 3.4 terawatts in 2022 to 11 terawatts by 2030.
According to an analysis by Ember, a London-based think tank, this increase in renewable energy capacity is "more feasible than ever" as countries accelerate their plans.
So far, 60 countries have joined the target, led by the US and the EU.
Charting hopeful way
Alex Scott, climate diplomacy and geopolitics program lead in London-based think tank E3G, said: "COP28 will see 193 governments negotiate a joint response to the dismal report card they received in the first global stocktake of climate action."
They could chart a hopeful way out of this climate crisis even as multiple other crises and conflicts hit if they can muster the leadership and put aside the green rhetoric," he noted.
He added: "We have a real chance to agree on new global goals for phasing out dirty fossil energy and scaling up renewables, sign countries up to hasten emissions cuts in their next national climate policies due in 2025, establish a framework to better govern currently fragmented adaptation efforts, and agree to mobilize the scales of finance needed - by backing proposals for transforming global finance institutions to do so and setting up and filling a new fund for climate loss and damage."
Mohamed Adow, director at think tank Power Shift Africa, said: "As emissions continue to rise, and suffering by those that have done the least to cause the crisis worsens around the world, this COP needs to be the moment we set a date for the phase-out of fossil fuels."
