ANKARA
Ten years after the historic Paris Agreement was adopted, the world is still way off track to meet its 2030 climate targets.
The year 2025 has been marked by the US as the biggest historical polluter, once again pulling out of the agreement.
The Paris Agreement was signed by 195 countries on December 12, 2015, and went into effect in 2016. Its primary objectives were clear: limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, aim for 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and achieve global net-zero emissions by the second half of this century.
Iran, Libya, Yemen, and Eritrea were the only countries that refused to join. With its latest decision, the US is now the only country that has formally withdrawn.
The agreement has elevated climate change to the top of the global political agenda, resulting in more countries implementing emissions-reduction policies and significantly strengthening international climate cooperation.
However, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are still far too weak to meet the temperature goals of the agreement, as the main barriers—political uncertainty, heavy dependence on fossil fuels, insufficient funding, and concerns about economic impacts—remain unchanged.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2024: 'No more hot air … please!' ahead of COP29.
According to the report, countries must commit to reducing their annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035.
Otherwise, the Paris Agreement's 1.5 C target will be out of reach within a few years.
US withdraws from Paris Agreement again
With only five years remaining until the 2030 targets, global carbon emissions reached new record highs in both 2023 and 2024.
According to the Global Carbon Project, with fossil fuel CO2 emissions climbing to 36.8 billion tons in 2023—a 1.1% increase from the previous year—and rising further to 37.4 billion tons in 2024, up 0.8% amid continued reliance on coal, oil, and gas
The return of US President Donald Trump—who during his first term withdrew the US from the accord in 2020 and has repeatedly called climate change “a hoax”—has heightened global concern.
On Jan. 20, 2025, the day he was inaugurated, Trump announced that the US would once again leave the Paris Agreement, reversing the Biden administration’s decision to rejoin in 2021.
Trump also declared a “National Energy Emergency” to fast-track domestic fossil fuel production and signed an executive order reinstating plastic straws, claiming paper straws contain harmful chemicals.
Additionally, the administration immediately halted all climate-related foreign aid channeled through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and imposed severe funding cuts and layoffs at key US institutions working on climate science and policy.
These policies are widely regarded as a major setback for global cooperation on greenhouse-gas reduction and for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Green Industrialization and COP30
The role of industry in meeting Paris targets was highlighted at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, in November 2025, when "green industrialization" became a central theme of the negotiations.
Thirty-five countries and several international organizations signed the Belem Declaration on Global Green Industrialization, which provides a framework for developing economies to adopt green industrial strategies, decarbonize heavy industry, and accelerate clean-technology innovation while creating jobs.
Building on COP29 in Baku in 2024, where parties agreed to a new climate finance target of at least $300 billion per year by 2035, COP30 advanced the Baku to Belem roadmap.
This roadmap aims to increase total climate finance to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
The Baku finance outcome was widely criticized as insufficient, and neither US President Trump nor Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the summit.
On a positive note, COP29 finally operationalized carbon markets after almost 10 years, enabling international carbon trading and additional private investment flows for green industrial projects.
Türkiye to Host COP31
The 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) is scheduled to take place in Türkiye in 2026. The Leaders' Summit will be held in Istanbul, with Antalya serving as the main conference venue.
Nearly 200 countries will meet in Türkiye to discuss the next phase of Paris Agreement implementation, which includes new and updated emission-reduction targets, adaptation measures, climate finance, and the implementation of carbon-market rules.
Previous COPs have been held in Germany, Japan, Denmark, France, the UK, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil.
Hosting COP31 will significantly increase Türkiye's profile in global climate diplomacy.
