Alyssa McMurtry
MADRID
Catalonia is to hold historic elections Sunday that could lead to the region's transformation into Europe's newest country and the break-up of Spain.
While on the surface the elections are regional, with voters choosing Catalonia´s next government, they are anything but routine. If the separatist parties gain an absolute majority, they have promised to declare independence from Spain within 18 months of the result.
The polls suggest the end of Spain as it has existed for more than 500 years is the likely outcome.
Two separatist parties are set to receive almost 50 percent of the popular vote and if they join forces, they will likely gain more than enough seats to achieve an absolute majority, according to a recent poll by Metroscopia for El Pais, one of Spain's leading newspapers.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to frustrate the separatists. On Sunday he urged voters to go to the polls.
“You have to say enough and put an end to this nightmare,” he told thousands in Badalona, Catalonia. The elections offer a “great opportunity to go to the polls and elect a government that thinks of well-being, not of flags and social fractures.”
For the separatists, the vote is fundamentally about long-held frustrations over alleged discrimination by Madrid and the democratic right of the region to decide its own fate.
Rajoy rejected earlier proposals to hold a referendum on Catalonian independence, saying the vote would be illegal and it would violate the Spanish Constitution.
“Spain and Catalonia simply have different priorities,” Elizabeth Castro, chairwoman of the International Committee in the Catalan National Assembly, told Anandolu Agency. “We´ve tried our best to be heard by Madrid and they refuse to listen.”
Catalans want to decide for themselves about education and spending, she said, after years of unfair demands from central government.
“It's not ethnic,” she said. “Everyone is welcome and it's not about hating Spain, it's about the right to political power.”
The EU question
With the campaign heating up and parties vying to sell their vision of an independent Catalonia, one crucial question is whether Catalonia would be forced out of the EU and the eurozone if it becomes an independent nation.
Without directly mentioning Catalonia, a spokesman for European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker reiterated Thursday that any breakaway region would be out of the union and would have to reapply for membership.
However, Raul Romeva, head of Together for Yes, the main separatist coalition, said at a leader’s debate Saturday that the “European Union isn´t going to expel seven-and-a-half million citizens, because legally they can’t.”
Ciutadans, the new centrist party in Catalonia, is likely to receive most unionist votes, polls show - an illustration of Catalans’ lack of connection to traditional Spanish parties.
At a televised leader's debate, Ciutadans leader Ines Arrimadas said: “We wake up every day to solve problems, not to create enormous ones, which would be taking ourselves out of Spain and the European Union.”
As far as the euro is concerned, Bank of Spain Governor Luis Maria Linde said Monday that Catalonia’s euro exit would be “automatic” and warned of a deposit freeze as seen in Latin America and Greece if tensions rise.
Artur Mas, the leader of the separatist Convergence and Union alliance and current president of Catalonia, said Monday that Linde was acting like a politician.
“We’re all grown up, don´t treat us like fools, we already know that the banks are going to fight to be in Catalonia,” he said.
Economic might
Catalonia is the largest economy in Spain and some economists have predicted the region would be better off alone.
A report presented to the European Parliament by the Centre for European Policy Studies and a Barcelona-based think tank stated the economy would grow faster, unemployment would be lower and salaries would be higher 15 years after Catalan independence.
In a joint statement Friday, Spanish banking associations warned independence would create legal uncertainties and lead to banks reconsidering their presence in the region.
Internationally, U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have publicly stated their support for a unified Spain. On the other hand, the Scottish National Party has called for a referendum.
“I think it’s bully talk,” lawmaker Castro told Anadolu Agency. “It's to make the situation look so dire and bleak to scare people into voting. The Spanish diplomatic core is extremely well financed and is going around twisting peoples' arms to make international statements.”
In sports, an independent Catalonia could see an end to the Barcelona-Real Madrid rivalry in Spanish football. The Sports Council said Barcelona - currently Spanish and European champions - would not be allowed to play in La Liga if Catalonia leaves Spain.
The club, which plays in the colors of the Catalan flag, has publicly stated it does not want to get involved in the debate.
All of these precarious predictions could influence major changes not only in the Catalan landscape but also the Spanish one.
So, this week, politicians on all sides will continue to clash over the future and the past, while voters ponder over what could be the most important vote of their lives.
